The Dollar Index just hit 101.15. Guess who's paying the price?

Gold opened at its lowest since August 5, near $4,150, yet the correction is being driven by oil and bets on another rate hike, not by anyone abandoning the metal. Gold December futures opened at $4,150.10 per troy ounce on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, down 0.4% from Monday's close (according to Yahoo Finance). Gold traded nearly flat at $4,200 per ounce near a seven-week low (according to News18).

Where the Market Stands Overnight

Spot gold fell as much as 3.4% Monday to about $4,137 per ounce, its lowest since 4 August (according to mining.com.au). Other metals fell Monday: silver -5.1%, platinum -3.8%, palladium -4% (according to mining.com.au). By Tuesday US gold futures declined 0.3% and silver fell 0.6% (according to News18).

The Dollar Index rose to 101.15, making gold more expensive for non-dollar buyers (according to Moneycontrol). Treasury yields are elevated, raising the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no interest (according to mining.com.au). Profit-taking in China may have added to the decline (according to mining.com.au (Saxo Bank)).

The Data That Decides the Fed's Next Move

The week's US releases will be the swing factor: job openings, ADP employment, PCE inflation, and nonfarm payrolls. Market odds for a December hike stand at about 94% (according to mining.com.au). The Fed delivered its first rate hike since 2023 and another before year-end (according to mining.com.au).

For a retiree, persistent inflation plus resilient jobs keeps policy restrictive and yields high (according to mining.com.au).

Oil, Inflation and the Pressure on Rate-Sensitive Assets

Rising oil prices are feeding inflation and keeping the Fed restrictive, which pressures rate-sensitive assets. Brent crude was $97.51 a barrel Tuesday morning (according to Yahoo Finance), after rising above $107 a barrel on September 28 (according to Moneycontrol). Elevated crude is reinforcing the case for Fed tightening, a stronger dollar and higher yields, all working against non-yielding gold (according to Moneycontrol (Ashish Rajodiya, PL Capital)).

The same inflationary forces that pressure some holdings can also keep your mortgage-rate world and bond yields elevated. Gold's one-year gain was 9.5% on Sept 29, the lowest since the daily price report began (according to Yahoo Finance).

Global Tensions Over Hormuz

The US and Iran's continued tensions over Hormuz could keep energy prices and yields elevated, and the direction of geopolitical developments will remain crucial for gold. After Trump rejected Iran's proposal, FM Araghchi said Tehran remained open to real diplomacy (according to FXStreet via Yahoo Finance).

Two threads, more than any single day's price, will set the direction from here: the Fed's October decision and whether US-Iran talks on Hormuz firm into real de-escalation. Hold both in mind above any one session's swing.